Kondratieff cycles



  • plural noun long business cycles of around 56 years, suggested by the Russian economist N. D. Kondratieff. He identified cycles from 1780 to the 1840s, then from the 1840s to the 1890s, and then again from the 1890s to 1914. He divided the development of a national economy into four stages: firstly inflationary growth, with low interest rates, rising prices and rising corporate profits; second, stagflation, where prices continue to rise as do interest rates, and the stock market falls while debt also rises; third, deflationary growth, with falling prices and interest rates and rising stock markets and profits; finally depression, with falling prices but increasing commodity prices, stable interest rates and falling stock markets and profits.